Maryland Schools and the Real Risk of Mass Violence

By John Huber, MarylandK12.com

A School Shooting, and No One Seemed to Notice

On November 7, 2025, a 17‑year‑old student was shot during a fight outside Harper Woods High School in Michigan, during a Friday night football playoff game. The shooting happened in the parking lot as the game against Chandler Park Academy was underway. The student survived, but the incident rattled families and magnified a troubling reality: violence can erupt in the very spaces where communities gather to cheer on their kids.

It didn’t make national headlines. No mass casualty. No viral footage. Just another entry in a growing list of school‑related shootings that pass quietly through local news cycles. But for parents, it showed them that the danger isn’t necessarily a stranger breaking in; it can be a student, a peer, or someone already inside the school community.

Defining the Risk: What Counts as a “School Shooting”?

For our purposes, we will use these definitions.

• Tier A: Any gunfire on school grounds (includes brandishing, accidental discharge, no injuries)
• Tier B: Gunfire resulting in injury or death
• Tier C: Mass shooting—defined as four or more people shot, not including the shooter

This tiered approach separates everyday safety concerns from rare but catastrophic events. It also helps parents understand the difference between a parking lot dispute and a mass casualty incident.

📊 School Shooting Risk by Tier and School Level

(Estimated Annual Odds in the USA per Individual School)
Source: Echo Movement – U.S. School Shootings Statistics

Notes for context:

• These are annual odds per U.S. school, not per student.
• High schools carry higher relative risk due to larger populations, extracurricular events, and older age groups.
• Tier A incidents are more frequent but often non-lethal.
• Tier B and Tier C remain statistically rare, especially in elementary and middle schools.

Qualifying Note: National vs. Maryland Data

The tiered odds above are based on national averages. Maryland’s school system has historically reported fewer severe incidents than the national baseline, with most cases falling into Tier A. As of 2025, Maryland has recorded 99 school shooting incidents, the majority of which were Tier A events such as parking lot disputes, accidental discharges, or gunfire with no injuries. That averages to about 1–2 Tier A incidents per year statewide. Tier B incidents (injury or death) remain rare, and Maryland has not recorded a Tier C mass shooting in recent history.

This distinction matters: while the national odds suggest one Tier A incident per 500–1,000 schools annually, Maryland’s data shows that such events occur slightly more often here. Still, the framework is meant to reflect the average school in Maryland, recognizing that factors such as enrollment size, preventative measures, and the number of extracurricular events can increase or decrease exposure.

What These Odds Mean for Your School

Numbers only matter when they touch real communities. Let’s look at a few schools in Northern Anne Arundel and Baltimore County and apply the odds directly.

Maryland has roughly 2,000 K–12 schools statewide (about 292 public high schools and 497 total high schools including private). When we apply the national tier odds to this landscape, it means that Tier A incidents (gunfire on school grounds, often without injuries) are expected somewhere in the state each year.

Northeast High School (Anne Arundel County) enrolls more than 1,300 students. With Tier A odds of 1 in 500–1,000 schools per year, Northeast carries a measurable annual risk of gunfire. With more than 1,300 families enrolled, the impact of such an incident would ripple across the entire community. For Tier B (injury or death), the odds drop to 1 in 2,000–4,000 per year, but across four years of attendance, the cumulative exposure makes the risk more concerning.

Severna Park High School (Anne Arundel County), with nearly 1,800 students, faces even greater exposure. With Tier A odds, a school this size could realistically expect two separate gunfire incidents in a single year. Tier B events remain less frequent, but the sheer size of the student body spread out over four years of attendance means that such an event becomes a realistic possibility.

Northeast Middle School (Pasadena), with about 850 students, and Nottingham Middle School (Baltimore County), serve a similar population. Considering Tier B odds of 1 in 4,000–8,000 per year, spread across three years of enrollment, this means that during the time a student attends middle school, the community is statistically likely to face at least one injury‑related event.

And then there is Tier C: mass shootings (4+ victims shot). These remain the rarest category, but when applied to real schools, the numbers stop feeling abstract. For a high school like Severna Park, the odds are less than 1 in 6,682 per year. That sounds small, but across nearly 2,000 students and four years of attendance, it means that such an event, while uncommon, remains a real possibility.

Internal vs. External Threats: Who’s Behind the Violence?

National data shows that over 70% of school shootings are committed by current or former students, while only about 11% involve an outside intruder with no school affiliation. Staff members account for a small but notable percentage of incidents, often tied to workplace disputes or targeted violence.

Maryland’s own safety reports align with this trend. The Maryland Center for School Safety reports that most threats originate from within the school community. Their 2023 Behavioral Threat Assessment Guide calls for stronger internal reporting systems, staff training, and behavioral intervention, not just better locks and cameras.

Maryland’s Numbers: Where Do We Stand?

Maryland has recorded 99 school shooting incidents as of 2025, with a rate of about 1.57 incidents per 100,000 residents. That places the state in the mid-range nationally (higher than Virginia, lower than Texas or California).

Importantly, Maryland has not recorded a Tier C mass shooting in recent history. Most incidents fall into Tier A: gunfire on school grounds with no injuries. A few fall into Tier B, involving injuries or fatalities.

With roughly 2,000 K–12 schools statewide, the odds of any single Maryland school experiencing a mass shooting in a given year are less than 1 in 10,000. The odds of a Tier B injury/death event are closer to 1 in 2,000. Tier A incidents, while still rare, occur more frequently—roughly 1–2 per year statewide.

Final Thought: Fear vs. Facts

The fear is real. But so are the facts. Mass shootings at schools are extraordinarily rare. Gunfire incidents are more common, but most do not result in mass casualties. And the majority of threats come from inside the school community, not from strangers at the gate.

Maryland has the tools and the data to address this challenge. What’s needed is a clear conversation; one that respects parental concern, acknowledges statistical reality, and focuses on solutions that match the nature of the threat.